This week, rather than focus on a single topic, I thought I would look at a couple of different things – and also point you in the direction of some other great articles I’ve read this week. First, though, something that’s a bit of a theme for me: the long-term unsustainability of the affiliate/SEO content model...
This screen grab neatly illustrates why I think search-driven affiliate content has no long-term future:
If you're a publisher, and you have an affiliate-led revenue strategy, you might want to start thinking about what your revenue model will be in a few years. Conversational AIs are going to massively impact on your ability to monetise.
This is an image from a query performed using Google Gemini Advanced, and the answer to my question includes links directly to retailers for users to just buy the recommended products. No affiliate intermediary required. And remember: Gemini will be the default voice assistant on Android, eventually. I haven’t seen good data on how many affiliate purchases take place on mobile versus desktop, but it’s likely to be the majority.
Conversations generative AI tools like Gemini are not good enough yet for purchasing (and that's true of most generative AI) but it will be, and probably sooner than you think. In nearly thirty years of covering technology, I don't think I have seen a new tech that's improved as rapidly as generative AI. It's gone from laughable to serious in 18 months, and I suspect that pace will continue given the money and resources pouring into it.
For purchasing decisions, conversational interfaces will ultimately be better for users, as they allow them to hone down recommendations based on personal priorities. I could talk to Gemini and say, “OK, I have a mix of hard wood floor and carpets, what would you recommend?” I can change price ranges, asking if there's a really outstanding model just above what I'm looking to spend.
It's going to take, I think, between three and five years to get to the point where the technology is good enough, but it will get there. If you have affiliate revenue now, I would strongly recommend you invest what you're making in a long-term strategy of building more direct traffic, and more direct revenue from consumers (in whatever way is appropriate to your market).
You might have noticed that online media is currently in trouble, with layoffs happening virtually everywhere you look. Dave Ruddock has written an excellent summary of why – and in particular, why now. It’s a quintuple whammy of Google, consolidation, affiliate, AI and the death, for publishers, of the distribution platforms they have come to rely on.
Dave finishes with “get out of media while you can, folks. It’s a bloodbath” and I sympathise with that view a lot. Paul Newman, who is MD of tech at Future, points out in the comments that this may just be the end of a cycle, and he’s right to say that the media business goes in cycles. When I’m optimistic, I think the next cycle will be all about direct traffic, paid for via subscription, and a resurgence of quality over pageviews. But the pessimist in me notes that getting there is going to be very painful, for businesses and for individuals.
The other major concern I have is the loss of experience in the industry. If you’re in your 50s now and someone dangles a decent carrot of redundancy money in front of you, you’re probably going to take it and go off to do something other than active journalism.
But it’s deeper than that. I had a conversation recently with a freelance tech writer of many years standing, who told me he no longer bothers even pitching to write reviews. Publications now want a “best of” with 10 products in it, and want to pay £200 for it – and actually properly testing 10 products takes a lot longer than than half day that £200 should pay for.
That freelancer represents decades of experience in technology and testing products. That’s all now effectively lost to the industry, never to return. Crafts which bleed knowledge like that rarely see an increase in quality over time, and if we are moving to a new era of quality content, we will need – somehow – to get that back.
On a more “admin” note, I’m thinking about expanding what gets emailed out to subscribers, and would like to hear your views.
At the moment, the mid-week newsletter is the only thing anyone gets via email. Other posts are all web-only.
I have started a regular link post on Fridays called “Ten Blue Links”, which covers a broad range of everything that’s interested me. I am thinking of sending this out by email too. I also do occasional longer posts on things which I have found interesting, again mostly in tech. And on Sundays I write a weeknote, which is a more personal reflection of what I’m up to.
As an experiment I’m going to send out Ten Blue Links via email, as well as the mid-week post. I’m hoping this will be of value to you. Ultimately, I want to move to an email system which allows you to sign up to one, or both – but for now it will have to be all or nothing.
Let me know what you think either in the comments below or by email. I’m planning to start emailing out Ten Blue Links from next week.
